Economic projections II (Portugal)

According to the previsions presented on the Bank of Portugal June Bulletin, after the fall of 7,6% in 2020, the GDP in 2021 grows 4,8% and foresees that in 2022 it will grow 5,6%. This growth includes the advances in vaccination, and the maintenance of economic policy support. The unemployment rate will end with a […]

Economic projections II (European Union)

The European Commission bulletin points out a growth for the European Union (EU) of 4.2% in the year 2021 and 4.4% for 2022. Much more favorable data is presented compared to the winter forecasts, presented in February. Among the Member States, the rates continue to diverge, but it is estimated that they will return to […]

Economic uncertainty indicator

What does uncertainty mean? According to the Portuguese Language Dictionary (Priberam), it is a feminine noun with different meanings: lack of certainty, doubt, hesitation, indecision and imprecision. By default, the broader definition summarises a “state or character of what is uncertain”; however, in economic language it is defined as a conjecture whose course to be […]

Will pandemic consumption explain the markets behavior?

Markets incorporate speculation in a more or less noticed way, and the recent behavior of raw materials and precious materials is unusual. Is it a consequence of people’s consumption profile during the pandemic period? The truth is that the pandemic caused changes in consumption habits (ambivalent dynamics). The digital commerce has increased and the local […]

Raw materials: Trend analysis

The escalation of prices in the last months of commodity prices (example: soybeans, corn, iron ore and copper) has promoted a debate among economists about their continuity and related reasons. But what does commodities mean? Economic expression in English, which refers to a specific good or product of primary origin marketed on the world stock […]

Precious metals: Trend analysis

The price of gold shows a very positive behavior, but unnoticed by investors as a result of the behavior of the SP500 via technological companies. This fully recovered the observed devaluation in March and shows: i) maximums similar to 2020 (with a + 12% appreciation); ii) the 2013 levels; and, iii) 15% of the historical […]

Investments: certain of “uncertainty” and/or “change”

To speak of uncertainty and/or change in investments is a euphemism that softens the naked reality of subjectivity (a sense of illusory denial). If not, let us think about when: i) does investing involve uncertainty?; ii) isn’t change the only constant in life? Heraclitus of Ephesus referred to it; it is such that the euphemism […]

Economic projections (Portugal)

Banco de Portugal (BP), in the review of the analyzes for 2021, argues that the pace of the Portuguese economy is slower than expected by the Government and, this trajectory will continue until 2023. The differential of the projections for 2021 is 1.5%, because while the BP defends a 3.9% variation, the Government estimates 5.4%. […]

Economic projections (European Union)

In the last bulletin of the European Commission, Autumn, it was concluded that the trend for the economic bloc presents a negative projection of 6.1% instead of the 4.2% ex-ante forecast in July. Even so, compared to 2020, overall it is an estimated recovery of 4.1%; Portugal is expected to have the fifth-worst performance of […]

Create or not create an SGPS? Here’s the question… – part 2

Bearing in mind the notion of trade-off it is not reasonable to ignore SGPS´s disadvantages, as well as, do not to forget the analysis dimensions: corporate income and selo tax (IS). Regarding dividends and/or similar (capital and interest gains), if equity shares acquisition resumes a period less than one year with capital losses, tax deduction […]