Inflation- scenarios

In early June, the European Central Bank (ECB), confirmed the rise into the interest rates by 0.25 percentage points; as a response to the overall increase in the Eurozone. Projections point to 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and the target of 2.1% in 2024. And this reality extends to the members of the Organization […]

The war in Ukraine- III

Regarding metals, Ukraine is a considerable producer of titanium, manganese and iron ore in the international context. Such commodities are key components in the production of low-cost steel for specialized purposes, such as the mould industry. With pressure on export points by Russia, for example, Odesa (access to the Black Sea) and the accentuated destruction […]

The war in Ukraine- II

As a result of the war and economic sanctions against Russia, the growth of the world economy should be lower by 1 percentage point; and inflation, be 2.5 percentage points above the OECD December scenario. This projection estimated global economic growth of 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023; and, given the context, world GDP […]

European funds: El-Dourado or myth?

With the elections, the period of governmental vacuum comes to an end and, the typical questions arise: i) what organisational and functional structure will the government have?; ii) who will be chosen?; and, iii) whether the strategic vision within the electoral manifesto will be fulfilled? However, despite such issues, the focus should be on the […]

Economic projections III (Portugal)

Despite European estimates, a lower growth in the Eurozone, expectations for Portugal show an inverse behavior. Because in the autumn bulletin, the European Commission predicted a growth of 4.5%, while current projections show a value of 4.9% (in everything similar to the forecasts of the National Institute of Statistics). In fact, the report indicates an […]

Economic projections III (European Union)

The European Commission’s economic projections for 2022 point to growth of 4%, a figure slightly lower than the autumn estimates; however, Paolo Gentiloni (in charge of the portfolio), said that this exercise does not consider the political dimension of the Member States. An example is the case of the legislative elections in Portugal. This review […]

Economic projections II (Portugal)

According to the previsions presented on the Bank of Portugal June Bulletin, after the fall of 7,6% in 2020, the GDP in 2021 grows 4,8% and foresees that in 2022 it will grow 5,6%. This growth includes the advances in vaccination, and the maintenance of economic policy support. The unemployment rate will end with a […]

Economic projections II (European Union)

The European Commission bulletin points out a growth for the European Union (EU) of 4.2% in the year 2021 and 4.4% for 2022. Much more favorable data is presented compared to the winter forecasts, presented in February. Among the Member States, the rates continue to diverge, but it is estimated that they will return to […]

Economic projections (Portugal)

Banco de Portugal (BP), in the review of the analyzes for 2021, argues that the pace of the Portuguese economy is slower than expected by the Government and, this trajectory will continue until 2023. The differential of the projections for 2021 is 1.5%, because while the BP defends a 3.9% variation, the Government estimates 5.4%. […]

Economic projections (European Union)

In the last bulletin of the European Commission, Autumn, it was concluded that the trend for the economic bloc presents a negative projection of 6.1% instead of the 4.2% ex-ante forecast in July. Even so, compared to 2020, overall it is an estimated recovery of 4.1%; Portugal is expected to have the fifth-worst performance of […]